The grasshopper arcyptera (Pararcyptera) meridionalis ikonnikov (Insecta, orthoptera) as a possible agricultural pest in temperate Asia
Oxana V Yefremova
Department of General Biology and Ecology, and Laboratory of Biogeomodelling and Ecoinformatics, Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk, Russia.
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1562-5252
Vladimir V Molodtsov
Department of General Biology and Ecology, and Laboratory of Biogeomodelling and Ecoinformatics, Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk, Russia.
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9169-9934
Sergey Yu Storozhenko
Federal Scientific Center of the East Asia Terrestrial Biodiversity, Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vladivostok, Russia.
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9269-4043
Anna A Shamychkova
Department of General Biology and Ecology, and Laboratory of Biogeomodelling and Ecoinformatics, Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk, Russia.
https://orcid.org/0009-0001-9458-2712
Michael G Sergeev
Department of General Biology and Ecology, Novosibirsk State University, and Institute of Systematics and Ecology of Animals, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, Russia.
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2179-0921
DOI: https://doi.org/10.20448/aesr.v11i2.5995
Keywords: Acrididae, Climate change, Ellipsoid envelope model, Forecast, Grasslands, MaxEnt, Modelling, Pest management, Plant protection, Steppe.
Abstract
The goal of the article is to estimate possible changes of the distribution of Arcyptera meridionalis in the contemporary and potential future climatic conditions. The data were collected during field trips. Two packages to produce the species distribution models, namely MaxEnt and ellipsenm, were used. The generated models predict that the status of A. meridionalis as the important pest will not change significantly in the nearest future, however, in the middle of this century, its distribution patterns will become more complicated. The areas those will be the most suitable for the species will remain mainly in the western and central parts of its range. The harmful activity of A. meridionalis can be especially important due to its early hatching, because hoppers may damage and destroy shoots with first leaves and tillers. The models generated for A. meridionalis look like quite different from the models for other steppe acridids. On the contrary, some resemblance between forecasts for two harmful, but quite different grasshopper species, namely Siberian-Mongolian A. meridionalis and East-Mediterranean A. labiata, are revealed. The models for both species demonstrate some possible significant depletion of the territories with suitable conditions for each one in the second half of the 21st century.