The Relationship among Economic Growth, Trade, Unemployment, and Inflation in South Asia: A Vector Autoregressive Model Approach


Anh Tru Nguyen

Abstract


The article aims to investigate the causal relationship among economic growth, exports, imports, unemployment, and inflation in five developing countries in South Asia for the last two decades (1997-2016) using a VAR model. We found that GDP has a negative relationship with inflation, while imports positively affect inflation in South Asian countries. Results demonstrated that there are no directional causalities between GDP, exports, imports, and unemployment rate and other variables in the short run. In contrast, there is a directional causality between inflation rate and other variables in the short run. We also found that there is a long-term relationship among economic growth, exports, imports, unemployment, and inflation in South Asia. Lastly, policies are recommended in order to ensure economic growth and a sustainable development in the South Asia.

Keywords


Economic growth, Trade, Unemployment, Inflation

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About this article

Title

The Relationship among Economic Growth, Trade, Unemployment, and Inflation in South Asia: A Vector Autoregressive Model Approach

Keywords

Economic growth, Trade, Unemployment, Inflation

DOI

10.20448/journal.501.2018.52.165.172

Date

2018-09-10

Additional Links

Manuscript Submission

Journal

Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research
Vol 5, No 2 (2018) Page: 165-172

Print ISSN

2518-010X

Online ISSN

2409-2622

Statistics

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Citations

0

Authors & Affiliations

Anh Tru Nguyen
The University of Newcastle Level 6, New Space, 409 Hunter Street, Newcastle NSW 2300
Australia


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Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research

 Online ISSN: 2409-2622 | Print ISSN: 2518-010X

 

 

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